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SHOULD EU VOTE FOR AN EARLY CHRISTMAS
FOR TURKEY?
The big debate now unfolding in Brussels is about
whether or not Turkey should become a full Member
of the EU. The Turkish Prime Minister - Recep
Tayyip Erdogan - was in Brussels recently setting
out his stall. He seems to have done a good job
in convincing the European Commission. He had
to reassure them that torture and human rights
abuse are a thing of the past and that adultery
will not become a criminal offence in Turkey,
despite his known support for the policy. This
controversial proposal had been part of a package
of laws set for approval in Turkey and now shelved
following protests from the EU. The shelved package
also contained proposals to ban virginity tests,
outlaw honour killings, ban the forced marriage
of a female victim to her rapist, and outlaw genocide
and people-trafficking. All of these things will,
at least in the meantime, remain legal in this
aspiring Member State.
But this is not why there is a growing nervousness
about Turkish accession, particularly from the
Germans, who claim that they are simply keen to
protect Europe's Christian heritage. Germany currently
enjoys the position of being the EU's biggest
Member State with the biggest population (82m)
and therefore with the biggest number of MEPs
and officials. But Turkish accession would see
even Germany swamped. The population of Turkey
is currently 71 million. It is estimated that
by the time they join the EU in 10 to 15 years,
their population will have risen to 110 million,
while the population of the rest of Europe will
have slumped. This is what really worries the
Germans. They fear the loss of their dominant
position in the EU and perhaps with good reason.
There are already an estimated 15 million Muslims
within the 25 existing Member States. This would
mean a Muslim bloc of over 125 million in an expanded
Europe of 575 million people. In other words they
would have almost a quarter of the total population
of Europe. They would be hugely powerful and Turkish
officials would dominate many of our key European
institutions. Once Albania and Bosnia with their
predominantly Muslim population of around 12.5m
join the EU, the situation will become even more
pronounced. This is dangerous stuff.
It is nevertheless worth remembering that Turkey
is a secular state and has put a great deal of
effort into fulfilling EU membership criteria.
She has been a stalwart member of NATO for 50
years. She has a flourishing democracy, a lively
free press and a stable government.
It would be dangerous folly suddenly to announce
that all of their hard work and effort had been
in vain and that she was no longer welcome in
our exclusive Christian Club. This could bring
about the downfall of the secular government and
would play into the hands of the fundamentalist
Islamo-Fascists. Clearly this is not an option.
But to offer full membership to Turkey could
sow the seeds of destruction of the entire Community.
Turkey is not only very large, it is very poor.
Its population enjoys a standard of living roughly
a quarter that of the average across the existing
25 Member States. It is predominantly an agricultural
economy with one third of its people engaged in
farming, so the impact on the CAP, currently straining
at the seams because of Poland's accession, would
be enormous. There simply isn't enough money to
go around. Even Commissioner Fischler sounded
stern warnings about Turkish accession in a recent
speech.
The UK is one of the big net contributors to
the EU budget. We pay in £4bn per annum
more than we take out. More than £2bn of
this goes directly to farm subsidies under the
much discredited CAP. In other words, we are subsidising
our direct competitors on the Continent, while
our farmers struggle to survive. The Commission
announced recently that £1.8bn has gone
missing from the CAP budget. This is money that
has been fraudulently claimed, mostly by fictitious
olive growers in Italy or non-existent wine growers
in France. The money has just disappeared. It
cannot be reclaimed. It doesn't take much effort
to imagine how much worse the situation could
become after Turkish membership?
According to the Commission, Turkey would absorb
up to £18.4 billion a year in subsidies
when it joins the EU. That is £160 a year
for every 4-person household in Europe. Turkey's
farmers would get £5.5 billion a year in
subsidies. The Commission says that for at least
the first ten or fifteen years of membership,
Turkey's economic contribution to the Community
would be minimal. In other words Turkish accession
could destroy the CAP and possibly destroy Europe.
There must be another way.
If Europe continues to pursue the Franco-German
vision of a politically integrated, European Superstate
as envisaged by the EU Constitution, then Turkey
must not be allowed to join. On the other hand,
we should welcome Turkey into a Europe shaped
by the Conservative vision - A Common Market -
a Europe of independent nation-states working
together to create a flexible, dynamic single-market,
taking down the barriers to trade and creating
jobs and prosperity for all.
A European Superstate dominated by France and
Germany would be bad enough. A Superstate dominated
by Turkey, France and Germany would be intolerable,
unworkable and could ultimately destroy the community.
STRUAN STEVENSON MEP
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