March 18th, 2000

INAUGURAL RALLY - 10.30 AM BALMORA SUITE, QUEEN'S HOTEL, PERTH

INTRODUCTION

Can I by way of an introduction give you some background about my own experience and position within the European Parliament? I am the Spokesman on Scottish Farming in the EPP/ED ruling Group. I am also, for my sins, Front Bench Spokesman on Fisheries for the UK Conservative Group. Unlike any of the farm ministers currently presiding over the catastrophe that is rural Britain today, I am a farmer and I am not a vegetarian.

DECLINE OF SCOTTISH FARMING

I am delighted to be here at the inaugural rally of the Scottish Conservative Countryside Forum and it is a pleasure to share a platform with so many eminent speakers from the world of agri-politics. I am particularly pleased to see Tim Yeo, our Shadow Agriculture Minister from Westminster and Alex Johnstone, Rural Affairs Chairman from Holyrood, here today. Although we meet on a regular basis, this is the first time the three of us, representing the three parliaments, have shared a platform together. I am also delighted to welcome Nigel Finch and trust that the SCCF will become an invaluable partner in the excellent work that he does south of the border. I think Frank Spencer-Nairn in particular deserves our heartfelt congratulations for organising this event and providing us all with a welcome platform.

Ladies and gentlemen, we are witnessing the destruction of rural Britain by Blair and his cronies and it is time each of us stood up and was counted. That is why I think the launching of the SCCF is of major importance. No other party is prepared to fight for rural Scotland and I believe this organisation will be of great help and significance in the battles, which lie ahead.

It is symptomatic of this New Labour Government that confronted with a problem, Tony Blair instantly turns to his spin- doctors for an answer. This explains why Blair recently, and ludicrously, claimed that there is no rural crisis. Indeed, Alastair Campbell and the army of un-elected and un-accountable spin- doctors were ordered to come up with a report, which could help Blair deny the existence of a rural crisis.

They did so, in a pathetic document which rehearsed arguments about the quality of scenery in the countryside compared to that in towns and the fear of crime in urban areas and all the usual nonsense. All of which was then taken to demonstrate that living in the country, represents a better quality of life than living in town and therefore, this clearly shows there is no rural crisis.

The sad thing is that Blair thought he only had to travel down to Devon and Cornwall….actually visit the countryside….and spew out this ardent rubbish, to convince everyone that no crisis exists and everything is hunky dory. Well thankfully, our farming colleagues in the south - west sent him hameword tae think again!

You don't need me to rehearse the statistics, but it is startling to note the collapse in net farm incomes in Scotland over the past five years. In 1995/96, net farm income in Scotland amounted to £595 million. This fell to £470 million in 1996/97. However, when Labour came to power that year, farm profits entered a period of spiral decline, falling spectacularly to £270 million in 1997/98 and then halving again to an estimated £135 million in 1998/99.

Given the appalling state of the industry at the end of last year, with most commodity prices on a downwards roller-coaster, and with bull calves out of the dairy herd and cast ewes virtually worthless, it is no wonder that farm incomes in Scotland are set to fall below £100 million for the first time this year, marking in stark terms the encroaching demise of our once great industry.

Scottish farmers now owe the banks in excess of £1.2 billion. It does not take a genius to calculate, therefore, that net farm incomes this year will not even be sufficient to meet interest payments on farmers' overdrafts. This spells certain doom for great many farmers whom are presently clinging on by their fingernails, hoping that a miracle might save them. The reality is, as all of us know only too well, that miracles only occur in fairy tales and farming in Britain at the beginning of the third millennium is far from a fairy tale…more like a nightmare!

Scottish Hill farmers earned on average only £1700 last year, with mixed hill units faring even worse at only £924. At a time when the minimum wage has been introduced across the UK, it is ironic and shocking that our hill farmers are earning less than 50p an hour for a forty-hour week and, incidentally, most of them would judge a forty-hour week as a holiday. The reality is that they work endless hours in all weather conditions and cannot even afford the time or the cash to take a holiday. Their situation is pitiful.

It is worth pointing out that while there is a recession affecting the agricultural industry across the EU, nowhere is it as severe as in the UK. I spoke to a Dutch farmer who told me that he was selling day old Friesian Holstein bull calves for the equivalent of £150 per head in Holland, where they have a burgeoning veal trade and a strong demand for young calves. They would take thousands from Britain if they could. The same applies to virtually every other Member State. However, even if the ban on live exports were to be lifted tomorrow, it would make little difference. The animal rights protesters were determined to stop the live calf export trade long before the BSE crisis. The fact that it leads to new-born calves being shot and dumped in a hole in the ground apparently causes them no sleepless nights, because their long-term aim is to bring the entire livestock sector to its knees and how close they are to victory.

Of course there are a variety of factors, which have conspired to deepen the crisis in the UK. The collapse in the Asian and Russian markets has had an impact across the entire EU agricultural sector, but the strength of the pound against the Euro, coupled with the BSE crisis, has hit British farming particularly hard.

The NFU FARM SURVEY

The NFU conducted a survey of over 5000 farmers towards the end of last year which made disturbing reading, showing how the majority of farmers are living on a knife-edge, keen to get out of the industry altogether, but unable to afford even to retire, because the capital value of their assets has been overtaken by the size of their overdrafts. More worryingly, 66% of farmers' children said they will not follow their fathers or mothers into the family farm, so disillusioned have they become.

The long hours, dire financial returns and gross instability of the industry have completely overwhelmed them. It is a picture of stress, worry, overwork and disaffection, which is symptomatic of an industry now beset with ill-conceived and often pointless and unnecessary over-regulation, gold-plated Brussels bureaucracy and government indifference. I thought it was particularly poignant during Blair's visit to the south west of England, when a 6 year old farmer's son handed him a painting he'd done of some tractors. Written on the painting was "I hope I can farm here when I grow up." The truth is that that wee boy and thousands like him will not be able to farm. This government will have wrecked the industry and laid waste to vast tracts of countryside across rural Britain.

THE BSE CRISIS

The roots of the current crisis can be traced back to the startling statement made in the House of Commons on March 20th. 1996, when the then Health Minister Stephen Dorrell said that there could be a link between BSE and new variant CJD. Virtually overnight there was a collapse in consumer confidence in British beef. No matter if you had never fed concentrates to your cattle and had reared your stores on home grown barley and silage, you were instantly tarred with the same brush as everyone else. All British beef was suspect.

The media circus was a spectacle to behold. They rooted around for every half-baked scientist willing to trot out some cack-handed theory about the looming plague, which would certainly wipe out mankind, as we knew it. The story became European and world-wide within hours and British beef was taken off the menu in burger bars and school canteens across the land and then banned from export across the world. Retail sales of beef dropped by 26%, with lower-value cuts such as minced beef crashing by 40%. Our export market, which was worth £500 million in 1995, came to an abrupt end. The knock-on affect across the whole agricultural industry was significant.

Now, more than three years and many billions of pounds later, what have we learned? Certainly we have learned that there has been no epidemic of nv CJD.

Indeed, although every case is a matter of deep tragedy, there have, nevertheless, been a total of only 53 known deaths occurring from what is termed "definite or probable cases of nv CJD". Several of these tragic victims were found to have been life-long or long-standing vegetarians.

The point is that to this day, a certain link between BSE and CJD has not been proven. I think that history will regard this whole episode as one of the great follies of the twentieth century. An industry laid waste, based on weak science and alarmist over-reaction. Despite this, we are still slaughtering animals at the rate of 95,000 a month under the OTMS arrangements, their healthy carcasses consigned to incinerators and their ashes buried in landfill sites, while more than half a million tonnes of tallow and meat and bone meal is lying festering in massive stores. What a legacy to pass on to the next generation and what a way to inspire consumer confidence in our industry. Over three and a half million animals have been destroyed, the vast majority of them, fine, healthy beasts, untainted by even the slightest hint of disease. Dozens of abattoirs, slaughterhouses and rendering plants have gone out of business. Hundreds, maybe even thousands of jobs have been lost.

THE FRENCH AND GERMAN BEEF BAN

At long last Germany has decided to debate whether to lift the ban on British beef. In repeated meetings with Agriculture Commissioner Franz Fischler and Consumer Affairs & Food Safety Commissioner David Byrne, I have demanded a more "aggressive and robust" approach to Germany from the European Commission. I have told them that British beef farmers are sick to death of the way in which the European Commission has pussyfooted around the illegal ban on British beef. Almost eight months have passed since the ban was supposed to be lifted and yet France has dug in its heels and now Germany is running rings around the European Commission, pretending that it is innocently seeking ways to lift the ban as soon as possible.

The truth is the Consumer Affairs Commissioner David Byrne has abandoned all attempts to seek interim court measures, which would have forced France to lift its ban, pending the final outcome of the case in the Luxembourg courts. Now the German Government has taken this as a clear sign of weakness and has decided to put the brakes on further moves to discuss lifting the ban in Germany.

While all of this pussyfooting goes on, British beef farmers continue to suffer. That is why I told Commissioner Fischler and Byrne that it is high time the European Commission applied a more robust and aggressive approach to France and Germany. The Commission should call for urgent oral hearings before the European Court, which would propel the issue to the top of the court's list forcing France and Germany to defend their illegal actions within weeks, rather than waiting months or years.

NEW FOOD SAFETY AUTHORITY

Following the publication of their White Paper on Food Safety in January, I warned the European Commission not to allow its new European Food Safety Authority, when it is set up in two years time, to become another huge layer of costly European bureaucracy. I told EU Health and Consumer Protection Commissioner David Byrne to give the new Authority teeth to deal with Member States who break the rules, such as France and Germany in the current beef war with the UK. However, I also warned that the new Authority must not become a bonanza for lawyers, who may wish to develop a lucrative new business arbitrating between decisions of the EU's Food Safety Authority and Food Safety Agencies set up by individual Member States.

I was alarmed to see Mr Byrne admitting that his new authority will have no real teeth, but will cost an arm and a leg and employ over 200 top scientific personnel. This all sounds like an admission that the Commission has failed miserably in its attempts to bring France and Germany to heel over their illegal ban on British beef, while also failing to give proper leadership over a series of food safety disasters such as dioxin, sewage sludge and BSE.

FRANCE IS A SERIAL OFFENDER

The recent decision by the European Commission to take action against France in the European Courts over their illegal beef ban, is only the latest in a long list of serial disobedience by the French government.

France now tops the list of countries that regularly defy European laws and regulations, with 419 directives not applied. The second worse countries are Italy (329) and Germany (293). Interesting to see that the French and the Germans are in first and third place and yet they are the countries who always claim to be in the heart of Europe, striving for ever deeper integration and harmonisation of all Euro laws. Now it seems that they only obey those laws, which they agree with.

The irony is that in Scotland, in the past year we have had only 35 cases of suspected BSE. France, on the other hand, has had many more cases of BSE during the same period and yet they are refusing to allow our beef into their country, while we continue to allow their beef into ours. It is ridiculous! I hope the new carcass tests for BSE which the Swiss and French have been testing with some success, may be applied across the entire EU. I am certain that such tests will give British beef the all clear, while identifying the true extent of BSE in countries like France.

I am also glad that moves are afoot to introduce a directive on beef labelling, which will allow consumers to identify British beef and enable them to avoid lower quality beef from the Continent. We must demand a system of labelling that ensures any foodstuffs entering the UK are produced only to the extremely high standards which we have imposed upon our own farmers and processors. There must no longer be one 'gold-plated' law for the British and another, inferior law for the rest.

DIOXINS AND SEWAGE SLUDGE

What really annoys me through all this business about BSE are these sanctimonious animal rights fundamentalists who again and again repeat the lie that it was greedy farmers, desperate to increase profits by exploiting their cattle, who introduced animal waste into feedingstuffs, causing the outbreak of BSE in the first place. How naive to think that farmers would ever have the ability to influence anything the big feed manufacturers do.

Sadly, I have to tell you that the same multinational feed manufacturers have learned nothing from the lessons of history. In Belgium we are still dealing with the fallout from the dioxin scare, where millers decided to supplement their use of old cooking oils in their animal feeds by adding in a few hundred gallons of motor oil. Needless to say, when this evil brew was heated up in the manufacturing process, it produced deadly PCBs which then worked their way through the food chain and ended up in chickens and other meat products on the supermarket shelves.

As if that was not enough, we then had the sewage sludge scandal in Holland, Belgium and France, where they have been putting dried sewage into animal feeds. After the European Commission banned the dumping of human sewage sludge at sea, many local authorities throughout Europe cast around for something to do with it. Eh voila, along come the good old feed-millers with the ideal solution. Let's shove it into the mix and feed it to our livestock. What a great way to increase protein content and what a super way to increase profits.

Once again, it's the poor farmers who get it in the neck and consumer confidence, which takes another pounding. And at the end of the day, once the Commission have introduced a whole new welter of regulations and controls affecting the manufacture of animal feeds, which probably only the British will obey, it will be the farmers who have to meet the cost of implementing these controls, as the manufacturers put their prices up.

THE SHEEP SECTOR

At the end of last year in Strasbourg I got the MLC to deliver a special consignment of prime Scotch lamb to the Members Restaurant in the European Parliament and a piper in full Highland Dress to pipe it in. 96 MEPs, Commission staff and the new Food Safety and Consumer Affairs Commissioner - David Byrne - attended the lunch and heard Gwyn Howells, Director General of the MLC - and the man who turned NIKE from a gym-shoe into an international fashion icon - explain how he was tackling the challenge of getting the UK meat industry back on its feet. He explained how the British meat trade now faces stricter food hygiene and safety standards than anywhere else in the world and yet told us how lamb exports have fallen from 146,500 tonnes in 1995 to 98,000 tonnes today.

Although this is in part due to the knock-on impact from the BSE crisis, it has also catastrophically, coincided with a collapse in wool prices due to economic problems affecting the Asian market and a massive slump in sheep hide exports, following the Russian economic crash. French demands for older ewes has virtually fallen to zero due to scrapie fears and that, in turn, has lead to a glut of sheep in the UK. The strong pound, rising abattoir costs and inadequate subsidies all conspired to place enormous pressures on the sheep sector, with some farmers resorting to shooting a burying their cast ewes as the only alternative to feeding them through another winter. Now we have seen an actual fall in Sheep Annual Premiums of around £2-50p per head at the same time as the farmers in the rest of Euroland enjoy an increase.

Again this can be laid at the door of the strong pound, but why does our government refuse to claim agrimonetary compensation. There is £400 million, which could be made available to British farmers, £60 million of which is new money, available from the European Commission. While it would only provide a short-term fillip to the industry, it would nevertheless be of invaluable assistance. So why does Nick Brown procrastinate while Gordon Brown refuses to open his war chest? It is high time we claimed what is due to us in Britain and if we don't do so by April, the money will be lost.

More worryingly, I had a meeting with Franz Fischler only last week and he confirmed that if the UK does not claim this agrimonetary compensation this year, he will find it extremely difficult to argue for it to be retained in the budget for next year. So Britain will sustain a double whammy and once again it will be the farmers who suffer the consequences.

THE DAIRY SECTOR

Now, of course, it is the dairy sector, which is in crisis. Still struggling to shake off the devastating impact of BSE, plummeting milk prices and a collapse in the calf trade following the Government's ending of the calf processing scheme, has hit dairy farmers particularly hard. The fact that the farm gate price of a pint of milk was standing at around 10p, while the retail price remains at well over 30p, perhaps serves to illustrate dramatically the rip-off culture that bestrides the entire agricultural industry. At the very least, farmers could have expected consumers to benefit from the catastrophically low prices they are currently receiving for almost every category of commodity. Low prices could even have stimulated demand. But not a bit of it…..the lower the prices fall to the primary producers, the higher they rise to the consumer. Someone is making a killing….profiteering at the expense of a beleaguered industry. Now farmers have started pouring milk down the drain and spreading it on fields. It is a pitiful sight to behold.

THE PIG INDUSTRY

But the dairy sector is not alone. During the past two years the pig industry has experienced acute difficulties and it anticipates a reduction of the national UK herd by up to a third, as more and more pig farmers are driven out of business. The failure of other EU member states to match the extremely high welfare standards, which apply in Britain, such as the stall and tether ban, has placed the UK pig sector at a severe disadvantage. Competition on a level playing field with overseas producers is almost impossible.

Pig meat produced abroad by illegal or sub-standard methods should be banned from sale in the UK. Our pig meat is a premium product and we must seek to introduce compulsory labelling that reflects this by specifying that the pig was reared in the UK and not merely processed there.

We must also ensure that the French Government stops paying illegal subsidies to their pig farmers. Yet again, this illustrates how the French are often the first to break the rules of the Single Market, but always the first to complain when someone else does.

I organised a meeting with Commissioner Fischler in Strasbourg last Tuesday, for leaders of the Scottish Pig Industry and Peter Stewart, newly elected Vice Chairman of the NFUS. This was an immensely useful meeting with the Commissioner confirming that the UK government should come forward with an industry re-structuring package which could even include an element of debt-relief. He said that he had held talks with Nick Brown in London last Thursday, but as yet, had received no response.

CEREALS

Needless to say, when the rest of the farming industry catches a cold, the cereals sector comes down with pneumonia. Arable crops occupy a central place in the farm sector as much in terms of human consumption as in demand from the animal feed industry. It stands to reason, therefore, that when all of these sectors are in severe recession, the arable sector suffers. When one considers that the CAP swallows half the entire EU budget at the present time and the arable sector, in turn, eats up almost half of CAP spending, then it becomes apparent why discussions on cereal farming tend to dominate debates on reform of the CAP.

UK cereal growers are faced with a real crisis at the moment. Prices for feed wheat, for example, have fallen from £120/t in January 1996 to around £77/t today. This is of course related to the strength of the pound, making British cereals not only more expensive, but also reducing the value of EU intervention prices.

Furthermore, the EU cereal market is over-supplied, and weather conditions in the UK have affected quality. As with the sheep sector, the fact that political instability in Russia coincided with the economic downturn in the Asian market further aggravated the problem.

GLOBAL TRENDS IN CEREALS

Global food policy has been driven by the need to cater for an ever increasing population: According to a report from the International Food Policy Research Institute in Washington, D.C. in 1961 the world produced 867 million tonnes of cereals for 3.1 billion people. In 1995, global cereal production was 1.9 billion tonnes for 5.7 billion people. At the same time, prices for major cereals declined. Between 1982 and 1995 real wheat prices declined by 28%, rice prices by 42% and corn prices by 43%.

Despite a slowdown in general cereal production growth, demand and trade in the cereal markets indicate a strengthening of the market (at an average rate of 1.4% annually from 1993 to 2010). Among the developed countries Australia is expected to experience the biggest growth in cereal production levels with 2%, followed by the United States while Japan and Western Europe face the lowest production growth at -0.7% and 0.5% respectively. Reasons for the depression can mainly be sought in policy induced scaling back of farm-price support programmes in favour of direct payments to farmers, as well as the collapse of communism in Eastern European countries and the former Soviet Union.

However, there is the fear that adverse weather patterns might increase and endanger the food production in many low-income regions. Furthermore, rapid income growth and increasing urbanisation will cause a shift in diets from coarse grains to rice and secondary shifts from rice to wheat.

Increased incomes will also encourage a strong growth in meat consumption leading in turn to more grain production for animal feed. Around 84% of this increase in global cereal and meat demand between 1993 and 2010 will come from the developing countries. By 2010 developing countries will account for 63% of global cereal demand and 58% of global meat demand. China alone will account for 23% and India 13%. The largest increase will be for maize for animal feed, followed by wheat.

Per capita food consumption of all cereals to 2010 is expected to be virtually constant, with slightly declining consumption of cereals in higher-income countries. Countries of the former Soviet Union and Eastern European countries are expected to be the biggest per capita wheat consumers among the developed countries.

Partially offsetting the increase in demand from developing countries, Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union will shift from significant cereal importers to substantial exporters. The United States is expected to capture a major share of the 38% increase in cereal export. Western Europe also has the potential significantly to increase its exports, but substantial gains in crop productivity and efficiency will be required.

RURAL TRANSPORT

Transport is of vital importance to rural Scotland and to the agricultural industry as a whole. Rural people make roughly the same number of journeys as people living in urban areas, but they cover almost three times the distance and have little alternative but to use the car. For that reason it is quite iniquitous to see this Labour Government relentlessly increasing transport costs through additional fuel taxes, car road tax increases and a welter of proposals for road tolls, swingeing parking charges and other anti-car policies. The soaring cost of a barrel of oil on world markets, which has gone from $10 a barrel to around $30 a barrel in the past 12 months, has added to our woes.

LAND REFORM

On top of all this we have a devolved Parliament at Holyrood who see their priorities not to implement immediate and drastic action to save our agricultural industry. On the contrary, they wish to introduce a Land Reform Bill and a Bill to Ban Fox Hunting, which will further destroy jobs and investment in rural Scotland and serve to underscore the Lib/Lab coalition's lack of understanding and lack of sympathy with the countryside.

Indeed, every survey of public opinion has shown that land reform is at the bottom of people's list of concerns, trailing well behind health, education, law and order and all the usual things. Why then, is Labour so determined to make land reform their number one priority in the new Parliament? Their agenda appears to be driven by a very few specific problems in the past with bad landlords, almost exclusively in the north-west Highlands. There is very little evidence of any real problems anywhere else in Scotland and yet the whole country will face upheaval when the Land Reform proposals become law.

The idea that land will in the future be confiscated from so-called 'bad landlords' and that local community groups will be the judge of who these bad landlords may be, reeks of Stalinism and sounds like a throw back to Mao Tse Deng's Cultural Revolution. The rural economy is in a fragile enough state at the present time without recourse to this dogmatic socialism.

THE FUTURE OF FARMING

I trust, following this relentless picture of doom and gloom, that you will be agog for news of what the future might hold, or indeed, whether or not there can be a future for farmers. I will spend the last part of this presentation looking at the failed Seattle WTO talks, Agenda 2000 and the proposed enlargement of the EU, setting out my own views on how these major policy areas will affect our future livelihoods.

THE OBJECTIVES OF THE CAP

As you know, when the CAP was first set up, its main focus was to reach the goal of increasing agricultural productivity, to ensure that the citizens of the EU could be properly fed and never again have to confront food rationing. Unfortunately, the CAP was a victim of its own success, so much so, that before long it was called upon to manage production surpluses in most sectors. The first response was to clamp down on supply by means of quantitative restrictions or quotas. More recently, the CAP has embarked on a new approach based on two core elements: lowering institutional prices for key products and offsetting the impact of these cuts on producer incomes by means of direct payments.

AGENDA 2000

In the 1992 Madrid Summit and more recently at the Berlin Summit in March of last year, further refinements of this policy were put in place, the main objectives of which seek to promote:

  • A competitive agricultural sector which is capable of exploiting the opportunities existing on world markets without excessive subsidy, while at the same time ensuring a fair standard of living for the agricultural community;
  • Production methods, which are safe, capable of supplying quality products that meets consumer demand;
  • Diversity, reflecting the rich tradition of European food production;
  • The maintenance of vibrant rural communities, capable of generating employment opportunities for the rural population;
  • An agricultural sector that is sustainable in environmental terms, contributes to the preservation of natural resources and the natural heritage and maintains the visual amenity of the countryside;
  • A simpler, more comprehensible policy which establishes clear dividing lines between the decisions that have to be taken jointly at Community level and those which should remain in the hands of the Member States;
  • An agricultural policy, which establishes a clear connection between public support and the range of services which society as a whole, receives from the farming community.

In short, the new policy seeks to support the maintenance of the specific model of agriculture, which is a key part of Europe's heritage, one that recognises the multifunctional nature of European agriculture and the wide range of benefits it produces.

Now it is all very well setting out such lofty objectives, but it is another thing entirely ensuring that they are delivered. As I pointed out in some detail in the earlier part of my presentation, many of these objectives are not being met, certainly in Scotland and the UK as a whole. The long-term solution has to be found in the market. The market is King. The market drives everything. For too long we have been lulled by a sea of subsidies into producing commodities which the market did not want or was already over supplied with. Those days are gone. Farmers must identify niche or global marketing opportunities and produce goods, which the consumer wants or needs. They can do this individually or collectively, through marketing co-operatives, producer groups or similar organisations. A

genda 2000 can best be viewed as a means of utilising taxpayers money to cushion the rapid downsizing of the farming sector to a lean and mean, market machine. Farming cannot survive unless it is able to meet the challenges of enlargement and globalisation. With half the world starving, the EU must find, in this age of high technology, ways of delivering, storing and distributing food to the developing nations as an alternative to cash aid and in a way which does not undermine the ability of these nations to help themselves out of poverty and decline. This could provide a solid foundation for our highly productive agricultural sector.

However, for the rest of us, the challenge will be to match supply to consumer demand, the age-old law of economics. No longer can we rely on absurd policies such as 'set-aside' to reward farmers for non- production. Nor, against the background of the Commission always arguing that the CAP must not become an obstacle to enlargement, can we seriously consider it likely that the new extended EU, with 21 or more Member States, will embrace a continuation of the present system of income support, intervention and quotas?

In the Central and East European Countries prior to the current pre-transition era, agriculture was heavily supported with a diverse range of measures including market price support, several kinds of direct payments to input subsidies, investment aids and tax exemptions. These support measures were drastically curtailed following the introduction of trade liberalisation and privatisation, and indeed in some countries, such as the Baltics and Bulgaria, agricultural production is now contributing to net taxation. Input prices in the CECs, such as for energy and fertiliser, have tended to move towards world market levels, while agricultural output prices have tended to stagnate or rise much less in the face of falling demand.

But we should not fear enlargement. Most countries of Central and Eastern Europe, with the exception of Hungary and Bulgaria, have become net importers of food in recent years, as their economies grow, and their most important trading partner is the EU with over 55% of market share. The projection for the main commodities from the CECs, show that surplus production of cereals, oilseeds and pigmeat will continue until the year 2003, with the export of these surpluses mostly having to be at world market prices. The traditional dairy surplus meanwhile will be somewhat reduced, while for beef and poultry, the region will be more or less self-sufficient.

WTO NEGOTIATIONS

The WTO Round of talks which fell apart in disarray in Seattle last December set out with the specific remit of achieving "substantial progressive reductions in support and protection." However, anti-globalisation protesters effectively stopped the conference from reaching any agreement.

Already we have witnessed flashpoints between the US and the EU over such issues as the Banana War, Hormone-Treated Beef and the looming Rum War. Clearly we cannot continue in this manner, with the US applying the nuclear option of imposing massive import tariffs on arbitrary lists of European commodities, in retaliation for what they regard as unfair EU protectionist policies favouring the Caribbean against South America in the case of bananas and rum, and discriminating against the importation of American beef.

The Uruguay Round introduced the principle of the Amber, Green and Blue Boxes, as defining the diverse domestic agricultural support measures, which the WTO disciplines were supposed to refine. Amber Box measures are forms of market price supports, together with direct payments directly linked to the volume of production, while Green Box measures comprise support with no links to production such as insurance schemes and environmental payments. Blue Box measures cover area and headage payments applied to limited amounts of production such as the EU's arable area payments and livestock premiums.

The EU already has considerable scope for further reductions in the Amber Box. However, the abolition of the Blue Box exemption would severely reduce the scope for further commitments, unless the EU responds to pressure on the Blue Box by decoupling payments from production - e.g. by basing them on historic rather than current production - so as to make them eligible for Green Box exemption.

The WTO negotiations are of vital importance to UK and world agriculture, the food industry and consumers. The talks must resume because their outcome will affect the international environment under which agricultural and food products are traded. It will also influence the future development of the CAP. We must all play an active role to ensure that the UK and Scottish interests are safeguarded and promoted.

Farmers will have to accept that future radical reforms will result in a more progressive application of market forces to agriculture. In the meantime, urgent action must be taken to bring this government to its senses. Ben Gill and Jim Walker are working hard, but they need to grab more headlines. It's a sad day when a blonde bimbo with a chocolate éclair can capture the attention of the media more effectively at an NFU meeting than our union leadership.

We must fight back and fight back hard. Labour was rocked in the buy-election in Wales when rural voters pushed them into fourth place. They were shattered when their vote collapsed in Ayr and a Tory farmer, John Scott, romped home to victory. That is the kind of language they understand. They don't like the feel of cold steel and each time we plunge a knife into the heart of the pathetic Lib/Lab alliance at Holyrood, it sends strong signals down to Westminster.

When a government, which would rather squander £300 million on a new Scottish Parliament or £1 billion on a temporary Dome in London, than mount a rescue package for the devastated farming industry confronts rural Britain, then the message is clear. We must use every means at our disposal to fight back until we have kicked this government out and sent them back to their cosseted urban roots to ponder the error of their ways.

SUMMARY

So in summary, let me outline the core objectives for the way ahead:

  1. The Government must quickly implement a BSE Exit Strategy, designed to revive consumer confidence in British beef worldwide. As part of that strategy we must demand the removal of the 560 kgs. Weight limit on OTMS cattle.
  2. The Government must quickly apply for agrimonetary compensation from the European Commission.
  3. In partnership with the NFU, the private sector, the European Commission and the Scottish Executive, we must implement new and innovative plans to train farmers in agri-marketing and the creation of producer groups and farm co-operatives.
  4. There must be a massive and sustained blitz on red tape, which is strangling the industry.
  5. We must support mandatory testing of carcasses for BSE across the EU, together with the introduction of labelling, not only for beef, but also for all meats, to ensure that products from countries, which operate lower welfare or hygiene standards, are clearly labelled.
  6. We must demand a guarantee from the Government that modulation money will go to farmers for retirement schemes and hill farm support, rather than be squandered on politically correct rural development schemes such as community centre renovations.
  7. We must demand that the government agrees to a re-structuring package for the UK pig industry, including an element of debt-relief.